Was South Carolina a Train Wreck for Hillary??

Train wreck in South Carolina for HillaryMaybe not! What’s the bigger story, Obama winning with 55% of the vote or the Clinton’s losing with 27% of the vote? I think Obama was expected to win BIG although none of the polls I saw had him taking her by more than 20%. A week ago the RCP composite poll only showed a 10.5% difference between the two with Obama on top. This is no doubt another shock for the pollsters and another reason why the voter should not use the polls as a guide.

Regardless of the above, I still believe the BIG story is the Clinton’s losing and here is the reason I think that way and while many are saying this is an omen of doom for the Clinton’s, I am not so sure. Before I go any further with this, I expect you have noted that I have referred to “the Clinton’s” and not Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina section. It is because husband Bill was so heavily involved in the campaign there. I also think the large spread in the votes is due to the black vote. The Clinton’s forced Obama into using the race issue. That made Obama THE black President! Then the Clinton campaign’s use of “dirty politics” galvanized the black vote for Obama and took away the black supporters the Clinton’s did have. Then again, it may have been the Clinton campaign strategy to lose South Carolina and label Obama as THE black candidate and dwell on that in the future primaries in Florida and the 22 taking place on “super Tuesday” hoping for an advantage with the white vote. Bill Clinton was quoted as saying that Jesse Jackson, when he ran in 1984 and again in 1988 won the state of South Carolina meaning that he, as a black candidate, won the black vote but it meant little in the entire picture.

Remember Carolina and Iowa does not necessarily a nominee make. Let’s take a look at all five state races thus far and how they shake out for number of votes per candidate, and what the electoral vote total is after these five contests. Primaries:

• Clinton received 581,242 votes
• Obama received 400,211 votes
• Edwards received 142,394 votes
• Uncommitted and Dropouts received 288,942 votes

Caucuses:

• Obama received 9512 votes
• Clinton received 9510 votes
• Edwards received 4605 votes
• Uncommitted and dropouts received 507 votes

Delegates:

• Obama has 63 delegates
• Clinton has 48 delegates
• Edwards has 26 delegates
• Unallocated has 37 delegates

Obama has only 15 more delegates than Clinton at this juncture and in popular vote he is behind her by 181,240 votes. There are 37 unallocated delegates that could go either way at this point. I do not see this as a losing position for the Clinton’s because there are 57 delegates to be awarded in Florida, 280 in New York, 185 in Illinois and 440 in California. It is “super Tuesday’s outcome that will most likely tell a solid story on WHO the nominee will be.

When the Democratic Convention convenes in The Pepsi Center in Denver on August 25, 2008 the candidate who has a number equal to or greater than 2025 will be the Party’s Presidential candidate. Take a look at this website after the February 5^th totals are all in and it will give you and idea of where each candidate stands delegate wise.

RWD